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As prediction markets approach $1.2 trillion in annual volume, Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) may emerge as long-term winners.
According to Clear Street, the addressable market for yes/no exchanges will grow to $14 billion by 2030, with an annual turnover of $1.2 trillion. This is significantly more than the $440 million in revenue and $47 billion in volume that are anticipated to be reported this year.
Longer-range estimates may prove too conservative due to a lack of recognition regarding the value of historical and real-time data generated by event contract exchanges, while some short-term prediction market forecasts may be prone to hope and hype, overstating the industry's short-term outlook, according to the research firm.
According to Clear Street, prediction markets operators may eventually evolve into big data and analytics vendors, which could increase their overall addressable market, increase use cases, and encourage more seasoned market players to accept event contracts.
Prediction Markets Are About to Experience a Breakthrough Year
According to Owen Lau, an analyst at Clear Street, 2026 will be a "breakthrough year" for prediction markets, with more revenue and more competition anticipated to be two industry defining characteristics in the coming year.
Lau thinks that because Circle and Coinbase have the infrastructure, settlement services, and compliance skills necessary to participate in this market, they are well-positioned to win the prediction market. Furthermore, both businesses have established and growing clientele, some of whom are already exhibiting signs of market enthusiasm.
In particular, Circle issues the USDC stablecoin, which is the second-largest digital currency of its kind after Tether. Because stablecoins like USDC facilitate efficient account funding and settlement, they are already widely utilized on event contract systems.
Lau points out that Circle's treasury offerings and liquidity infrastructure might grow in tandem with prediction markets.
Coinbase Might Become the Goliath of the Prediction Market
Coinbase recently announced its anticipated market debut through a cooperation with Kalshi, solidifying that overture with the acquisition of The Clearing Company. Coinbase was recognized by Clear Street as one of its top three fintech picks for 2026.
According to Clear Street, Coinbase is the obvious winner in the analytics/data evolution scenario stated above because the bitcoin brokerage company possesses the technology, user base, and compliance expertise required to benefit from that advancement.
Coinbase stated in its 2026 Crypto Market Outlook that prediction markets are entering a "transformative period." Although it didn't go into great detail about a company-specific analytics/data scenario, it did note that fragmentation risk rises as the yes/no industry develops, which may increase the need for curated aggregation offerings.
