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The 29-year-old linebacker Logan Wilson, who has at least 100 tackles annually between 2021 and 2024, was selected by the Dallas Cowboys for a seventh-round draft pick this morning, the first team to act on NFL trade deadline day. Today at 4 p.m. EST, the NFL trade deadline was set.
Wilson will assist in bridging the holes in the Cowboys' vulnerable defense. But it's not quite Micah Parsons' replacement. After losing badly to the Arizona Cardinals 27–17 at home yesterday night, Dallas dropped to 3-5-1, second in the NFC East, and eliminated from the playoff picture halfway through the season.
Then, in the afternoon, the Cowboys made a huge announcement: they had acquired three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Quinnen Williams from the Jets in exchange for a 2026 second-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick, and DT Mazi Smith, which would significantly strengthen their defensive line.
Another Weapon Is Given to Darnold
In exchange for fourth- and fifth-round picks in the 2026 draft, Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold, who is projected by DraftKings to win league MVP in the year 2000, received another weapon in wide receiver Rashid Shaheed, who was acquired in a deal with the Saints. This offseason, Shaheed is a free agent. With 44 receptions this season for 499 yards and two scores, he is a real deal.
The Jacksonville Jaguars received WR Jakobi Meyers from the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for a fourth- and sixth-round draft pick. In the AFC South, the Jaguars are 5-3 and trailing the Indianapolis Colts, who lead the division. Among the teams interested in Meyers were the Buffalo Bills.
It's interesting to wonder how all of this will affect betting in the future.
Toe stubs in colts
This season, underdogs have a 40-94-1 record in straight-up wins and losses, but they perform better against the spread (59-74-2). There isn't a dominant team; parity has been the narrative halfway through.
“Dogs putting up a fight for the first time in a couple of weeks was the story of the early morning slate,” said Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, after Sunday’s games. “Four straight-up dogs and a sprinkle of lower-scoring games swung the results the book’s way early, although there were a few big decisions that went the customer’s way. The later games were completely overshadowed by the marquee matchup of the week in Buffalo. The difference in handle between the Chiefs and Bills compared to the other two games was astronomical. All the results in the afternoon went the customers’ way with two favorites covering and the very popular Bills on the money line.”
Against the Steelers, the Colts, who were 7-1 entering into Sunday's game, turned the ball over six times. Daniel Jones, the quarterback, had three interceptions. In the eight games prior, the Colts had only turned the ball over four times. Jones' odds of winning MVP fell to +2500.
We're going to see how serious they are since the Colts have been defeating weak teams. They made a big splash today when they traded for first-round draft selections in 2026 and 2027 to acquire great cornerback Sauce Gardner from the Jets. This previous off-season, Gardner agreed to a four-year agreement worth $120.4 million.
The Vikings defeated the Lions 27–24 on Sunday after the Lions dominated to a 4–1 start and appeared to be the Super Bowl favorites.
Bills Return as Favorites for the Super Bowl
And my goodness, the Packers, who looked so good on October 26 against those same Steelers, tripped all over themselves on Sunday at home against the mediocre Panthers and lost 16–13. Before that game, the Panthers were -1200 at ESPN BET ML. The Packers' offense went inside the Panthers' 35-yard line on five of their first six possessions and managed just two field goals before Josh Jacobs scored a late touchdown.
According to a cursory glance at this morning's ESPN Power Index, the Bills are ranked first in expected wins at 11.9, followed by the Colts at 11.6. Even though the Chiefs lost to the Bills on Sunday, the Power Index still shows them as the club with the highest chance to win the Super Bowl (10.9%), followed by the Colts (10.7%) and the Bills (10.1%).
Sharp Money vs. Public
Halfway through this year, how is the public versus sharp money splitting on underdogs in comparison to favorites?
“These are a little circumstantial, but generally the public likes to look at standings and what happened the previous week with teams,” said Christian Cipollini, Trading Manager, BetMGM. “For example, the Panthers beating the Packers and now being 5-4 should reflect in more public backing this week. Essentially, the public likes to bet favourites they like while the sharps tend to try and bet underdogs where they can find value. However, this can vary week to week.”
The Broncos are the favorite in the AFC West (+125), the Bills are the favorite in the AFC East (-175), the Ravens are the favorite in the AFC North (-145), and the Colts are the favorite in the AFC South (-325), according to BetMGM.
At -3300, the Eagles are the favorite in the NFC East. The Packers are at +105 in the NFC North, while the Buccaneers are at -750 in the NFC South. At +125, the Rams are the clear favorites to win the NFC West.
